University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs recently shared his predictions for 2018 crop acreage as it pertains to corn and soybeans. According to Hubbs, anticipating planted acreage of both crops will begin with considering how much acreage is actually available for planting this spring.
During the 2015-2017 period, corn and soybean acreage combined expanded from 170.7 million acres to 180.3 million acres.
“In total, planting intentions for corn and soybean plantings equal to or slightly larger than those of last year would not be a surprise,” says Hubbs. “In considering the potential acreage available to spring crops, a reduction in acreage available during 2018 due to increased enrollment in CRP is negligible.”
Hubbs goes on to note that the condition of hard red winter wheat crop is poor in the Southern Plains. The prospect of double-cropping this crop acreage may actually present additional acreage for soybeans this year.
“Despite the development of limited rain in many of the drought-impacted regions, the poor condition suggests acreage may be abandoned,” Hubbs says. “Depending on weather condition developments, some abandoned acres may get replanted to other crops this spring with corn and soybeans as strong contenders for acreage this year.”
Finally, Hubbs addressed the potential for spring flooding. There may be moderate flooding in the lower Mississippi River Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Illinois River Basin, and the Lower Missouri River Basin.
"Flooding in these areas may lead to an increase in prevented plantings and would presumably reduce the total acreage planted this spring,” Hubbs said. “The size of that acreage adjustment will develop over the spring and a return to average prevented plantings would diminish possible acreage availability.”